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http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/01/04/BUGDBNCBRC1.DTL&hw=Bay+Area+real+estate&sn=001&sc=1000
Your Bay Area home as profit center
For all the talk of a housing slowdown, almost 97 percent of people who sold Bay Area homes in November got more than they paid for their properties and almost half at least doubled their money, according to a new report.
The report, from First American Real Estate Solutions, attempts to quantify the profit realized on home sales, not including any money the owners spent on improvements.
The median estimated profit for the nine Bay Area counties plus Santa Cruz and Monterey counties was $315,000, or 88 percent, with a median holding period of six years. That works out to an appreciation of 11.1 percent per year, well over the rate of inflation, which averaged 2.7 percent during the same period.
Using county records, the report looked at all single-family homes sold in November for which the prior sale price was available. It excluded newly constructed homes and transactions that were not arm's length, such as those between family members.
It then compared the median sale price for all homes sold in November with the median price for all prior sales, "whether they were a year ago or 10 years ago," says Christopher Cagan, director of research with First American, a real estate information service.
The report did not look at the profit or loss on individual homes. But, if it had, the results would have been in the same ballpark, says Cagan.
The report found that:
-- Median dollar profit ranged from $194,752 in Solano County to $368,500 in San Mateo County.
-- Median percentage profit ranged from 63 percent in Santa Clara County to 123 percent in Monterey County.
-- People held onto their homes the longest in Monterey County (6.7 years) and the shortest in Napa County (just over four years).
-- On an annual basis, profit ranged from 8.3 percent in Santa Clara County to 13.9 percent in Napa County.
-- In all counties except Napa, more than 40 percent of home sellers made more than a 100 percent profit.
Although many information services and real estate groups publish monthly reports on regional home sales and prices, this is one of the first reports that focuses on the difference between the median selling price of homes and what the sellers originally paid for those homes.
First American started publishing the profit reports for homes sold in October in the Bay Area and five Southern California counties.
John Karevoll, an analyst for Dataquick Information Services, says he has compiled profit reports for banks and other clients but has never published then. He might in the future because interest in the subject is growing.
"It's being watched in part because economists are trying to measure how much money from the housing sector is being pumped into the economy," Karevoll says. Home sellers don't always plow all their profit into a new home, he adds.
What the new report does not show is how much equity homeowners have extracted from their houses prior to sale, either by taking out a second mortgage or doing a cash-out refinancing.
Cagan says economists and others are also interested in the percentage of homes sold at a loss, meaning the most recent price is less than the prior sales price. Most homeowners are extremely reluctant to sell at a loss, and an increase in this number would be an ominous sign for the housing market and the economy.
In the Bay Area, these numbers are still low, ranging from 1.7 percent in Napa County (unchanged from October) to 5.6 percent in Marin County (up from 1.6 percent in October).
In Southern California, homes sold at a loss ranged from 1 percent in Los Angeles County to 6.2 percent in San Diego County. The condo market in San Diego County is even worse, with 10.8 percent of units being sold at a loss in November.
"In downtown San Diego, you have lots and lots of condo construction, more than they could turn over. As a result, you have people slashing prices," Cagan says. (First American did not study condo profits in the Bay Area.)
During the housing slowdown of the early 1990s, things were worse.
In 1992, almost 24 percent of Southern California homes and condos were sold at a loss, according to figures from Dataquick.
Of course that recession was caused by a sharp drop in employment, especially in aerospace. Today, the job market in California is strong.
Nevertheless, Cagan says, homeowners should not expect to see the same outsized gains they've gotten in recent years.
Long term, in the Bay Area and Southern California, housing appreciates only 3.5 percentage points a year over the rate of inflation, he says.
Your Bay Area home as profit center
For all the talk of a housing slowdown, almost 97 percent of people who sold Bay Area homes in November got more than they paid for their properties and almost half at least doubled their money, according to a new report.
The report, from First American Real Estate Solutions, attempts to quantify the profit realized on home sales, not including any money the owners spent on improvements.
The median estimated profit for the nine Bay Area counties plus Santa Cruz and Monterey counties was $315,000, or 88 percent, with a median holding period of six years. That works out to an appreciation of 11.1 percent per year, well over the rate of inflation, which averaged 2.7 percent during the same period.
Using county records, the report looked at all single-family homes sold in November for which the prior sale price was available. It excluded newly constructed homes and transactions that were not arm's length, such as those between family members.
It then compared the median sale price for all homes sold in November with the median price for all prior sales, "whether they were a year ago or 10 years ago," says Christopher Cagan, director of research with First American, a real estate information service.
The report did not look at the profit or loss on individual homes. But, if it had, the results would have been in the same ballpark, says Cagan.
The report found that:
-- Median dollar profit ranged from $194,752 in Solano County to $368,500 in San Mateo County.
-- Median percentage profit ranged from 63 percent in Santa Clara County to 123 percent in Monterey County.
-- People held onto their homes the longest in Monterey County (6.7 years) and the shortest in Napa County (just over four years).
-- On an annual basis, profit ranged from 8.3 percent in Santa Clara County to 13.9 percent in Napa County.
-- In all counties except Napa, more than 40 percent of home sellers made more than a 100 percent profit.
Although many information services and real estate groups publish monthly reports on regional home sales and prices, this is one of the first reports that focuses on the difference between the median selling price of homes and what the sellers originally paid for those homes.
First American started publishing the profit reports for homes sold in October in the Bay Area and five Southern California counties.
John Karevoll, an analyst for Dataquick Information Services, says he has compiled profit reports for banks and other clients but has never published then. He might in the future because interest in the subject is growing.
"It's being watched in part because economists are trying to measure how much money from the housing sector is being pumped into the economy," Karevoll says. Home sellers don't always plow all their profit into a new home, he adds.
What the new report does not show is how much equity homeowners have extracted from their houses prior to sale, either by taking out a second mortgage or doing a cash-out refinancing.
Cagan says economists and others are also interested in the percentage of homes sold at a loss, meaning the most recent price is less than the prior sales price. Most homeowners are extremely reluctant to sell at a loss, and an increase in this number would be an ominous sign for the housing market and the economy.
In the Bay Area, these numbers are still low, ranging from 1.7 percent in Napa County (unchanged from October) to 5.6 percent in Marin County (up from 1.6 percent in October).
In Southern California, homes sold at a loss ranged from 1 percent in Los Angeles County to 6.2 percent in San Diego County. The condo market in San Diego County is even worse, with 10.8 percent of units being sold at a loss in November.
"In downtown San Diego, you have lots and lots of condo construction, more than they could turn over. As a result, you have people slashing prices," Cagan says. (First American did not study condo profits in the Bay Area.)
During the housing slowdown of the early 1990s, things were worse.
In 1992, almost 24 percent of Southern California homes and condos were sold at a loss, according to figures from Dataquick.
Of course that recession was caused by a sharp drop in employment, especially in aerospace. Today, the job market in California is strong.
Nevertheless, Cagan says, homeowners should not expect to see the same outsized gains they've gotten in recent years.
Long term, in the Bay Area and Southern California, housing appreciates only 3.5 percentage points a year over the rate of inflation, he says.
작성일2007-01-04 22:43
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