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subprime mortgage woes 를 보면서 왜 특종님의 위와 같은 기사가 없나 궁금해 하였는데 좋읍니다.
"sub-prime loan 의 문제는 이미 4-5 년전에 예견된 아주 선명하고 분명한 문제였던것은 융자 전문가들이 아니고 일반 사람들도 다 예견할수있는 상식수준의 문제였었다." 
이말씀에는 나도 동의 합니다. 

Wells Fargo Mortgage 에서는 2006년도에는 많을때에는 27% 정도의 subprime mortgage amount 이 지금은 9% 이하의 전체금액 밖에 되지 않읍니다. 이렇듯 몰게지 렌더들 또한 부동산의 흐름으로 이런 상황을 먼저 예측을 하였겠지요. 

그러면 subprime loan이란 무엇인가? 
일반적으로 크레딧 점수가 620점 또는 이하인 사람들에게  준 몰게지 이며 이런 점수는  빚을 늦게 갚거나 전혀 갚지 않은 사람들의 점수입니다. 
그러므로 subprime 몰게지를 빌린 사람은 리스크가 높은 그룹으로 평가하여 크레딧이 좋은 사람들 보다 최소한 2%정도 더 높은 이자율을 내야 했읍니다. 예를들면, 
크레딧이 좋은 사람이 5% 이자로 론을 받을 때 같은 몰게지의 subprime 의 론을 받아야했던 손님들은 최소한 7% 이상의 이자율을 지불해야 했읍니다. 

미국의 소비자 가운데 약 20 퍼센트의 사람들이 크레딧 점수가 620 이거나 그 이하의 사람들이고 단지 13 퍼센트가 몰게지를 가지고 있디고 크레딧 brueau 인 Experian 가 전했읍니다. 
여기에 여러가지 이야기를 더 할 수 있지만 subprime 을 빌린사람들은 거의 다 인검이 낮은 지역과 college 교육을 받지 않은 소수계민족, 특히 흑인들과 Hispanic 으로 나타났읍니다. 

아직도 집 가격이 계속오르고 있는 어떤 SF Bay Area County는 전혀 영향을 받고 있지 않다는 생각입니다.

그리고 다음 기사는 San Jose Mercury 에서 발췌한 기사입니다.

http://www.mercurynews.com/search/ci_5432047 

Valley may be insulated from mortgage morass 
By Sue McAllister 
Mercury News 
San Jose Mercury News 
Article Launched:03/14/2007 01:39:22 AM PDT 
 
More people nationwide are falling behind on their mortgage payments, especially those with poor credit ratings who bought their homes using subprime loans, and it's reverberating throughout the U.S. economy. 
Local economists, however, say the fallout for the Bay Area housing market won't be severe. 

Subprime lending boomed a few years ago when interest rates were low, housing prices were rising and Wall Street investors were eager to fund the potentially lucrative loans. But now that default and foreclosure rates are rising, investors have demanded that lenders buy back their bad loans. Many subprime lenders have been financially crippled by the sudden change in climate, and problems in the sector sank stock markets Tuesday. 

But on the local level, experts say, the effect on the housing market may be mild, though some first-time buyers will find it harder to get loans. "The difficulties with the subprime lenders will probably put more homes on the market and increase the possibility that prices will go down," said Stephen Levy of the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. However, "the effects will be less in Silicon Valley than in many other areas," he said. 

That's largely because there are fewer subprime borrowers here than in many other metropolitan areas. Furthermore, Levy said, the proportion of buyers who used subprime loans has been falling in the San Jose area for the past few years, while it rose in more affordable areas of the state such as the Central Valley. 

About 7 percent of all outstanding mortgages in the San Jose metropolitan area in December 2006 were subprime loans, according to estimates from First American LoanPerformance in San Francisco. Of those borrowers, nearly 9 percent were more than 60 days late in their payments. But nationally, about 15 percent of mortgages outstanding at the end of last year were subprime, and about 12 percent of those borrowers were delinquent in their payments. 

LoanPerformance gets its data directly from lenders, whose definitions of "subprime" vary. In general, the term is used to refer to borrowers with less-than-stellar credit. Borrowers with credit scores of less than 660 are generally likely to borrow using subprime loans, said Paul Garcia, a mortgage broker with Pacific Blue Equity in San Jose, as are those who have had bankruptcies or foreclosures. (A perfect credit score is 850.) 

Tighter standards 

Garcia said the most immediate result of the shakeout in the subprime-lending market is that prospective home buyers with blemished credit are already finding it more difficult to get loans. 

He cited a recent young client with a credit score of just over 660 but a relatively short credit history, who is looking to buy her first condominium using 100 percent financing. 

"With the guidelines changing, now some of the lenders who would have taken that three weeks ago ... can't do it today," he said. 

With large subprime lenders such as New Century Financial facing the prospect of bankruptcy, and others already closed because too many of their loans went bad, lenders are reacting by tightening their underwriting guidelines. Two weeks ago, mortgage financing company Freddie Mac announced stricter standards for its investments in subprime-mortgage-backed securities. 

Those changes certainly will affect some buyers in the Bay Area. But the danger for areas with higher percentages of subprime loans is that more of those borrowers will be forced to sell their homes, which will create excess supply and drive down home values. 

"The signs of fraying in the real estate market started to show up in the weakest link, which is the subprime market," beginning a couple of years ago, said Keitaro Matsuda, an economist with Union Bank of California in San Francisco. But the rapid increase in subprime delinquencies in California is "a more recent phenomenon," he said. "Until 2006, we really didn't see any dramatic change in the California market." 

LoanPerformance's data show that California metro areas held the top 13 spots nationwide in the rate of increase of delinquencies among subprime borrowers from 2005 to 2006, he said. The San Jose metro area - which includes Santa Clara and San Benito counties - was in 30th place nationally, rising from 3.2 percent of subprime borrowers overdue in December 2005 to 8.5 percent in December 2006. 

Expensive markets 

But the big increases happened in part because of the previously low levels of subprime delinquency, Matsuda said. 

"Some of the major markets in the state still look very, very healthy," he said. "All those expensive markets tend to have lower usage of subprime." 

In the Oakland metropolitan area - which includes Alameda and Contra Costa counties - about 11 percent of outstanding mortgages in December 2006 were subprime, with 12 percent of those borrowers at least 60 days late on their payments. In the San Francisco metro area - San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin counties - 5 percent of mortgages were subprime, and 8 percent of those borrowers were delinquent. 

Mortgage broker Garcia said it's not clear what will happen to subprime borrowers when they want to refinance and face newly strict lending policies. 

Homeowners like Juanita Wallace may be affected. Wallace is an 80-year-old retired Gilroy homeowner who said she's not sure her current loan was subprime, because she says she has excellent credit. But her loan has many characteristics of those subprime borrowers typically get, including a hefty penalty if she refinances within the first two years; and a negative-amortization "teaser" rate of 1.75 percent that's causing her loan balance to grow with each passing month. 

Her home of 35 years would have been paid for by now if she had not refinanced three times to remodel and pay debts. 

"Here I ended up owing $590,000 on it," she said with a rueful laugh. 




-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
Contact Sue McAllister at smcallistermercurynews.com or (408) 920-5833. 




특종님이 2007-03-24 10:10:23에 쓰신글
>Sub-prime Mortgage 의 issue 가 시작된지 이제 고작 몇달밖에 되지 않았다.
>Alan Greeenspan 의 언급으로 상황의 심각성이 조금 밝혀진 상황에 불과하다.
>아직도 업계에서는 언론의 불을 끄는것에 급급한 상황이며.. 전체경제에 별로
>영향을 끼치지 않는다. 진정됬다 등등....
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>끓는물은 섭씨 95 이상이 되지않으면 Boiling 하는 물거품을 볼수가 없다.
>눈으로 봐서는 아주작은 기포정도나 보일까  물이 매우 뜨거운것을 알수가 없다.
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>Sub-prime loan 의 문제는 이미 4-5 년전에 예견된 아주 선명하고 분명한 문제였던것은 융자 전문가들이 아니고 일반 사람들도 아 예견할수있는 상식수준의 문제였었다.
>2 년전 부동산이 가장 Hot 했을때 Bay Area 의 Sub-prime Mortgage 가 70% 이상이였던것을 감안한다면 Sub-Prime Mortgage 의 문제가 진정국면이고, 별 영향이 없다는 이런 거짓 기사들은 또 머지않은시간에 문제가 현실화되면 끄때가서도 또 다른 변명성 기사로 땜질을 하고저 노력할 것이다.
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>Alan Greenspan 이 과연 어떤 사람이던가?  그사람이 바로 이러한 문제을 정확하게 알고있고, 예견하고서도 방치하여 부동산 금융계를 이지경으로 만들어놓은 장본인이 아닌가.. 누구보다도 이런 문제에 대해서 잘 알고있고 정확하게 미래를 예견할수있는 사람이라고 생각한다.
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>또한 Warren Buffet 이란 사람이 누구던가?  투자의 귀재, 세계 2 번째 부자.. 이런사람이 미국경제의 연착륙은  Wishful Thinking 이라는 말을 얼마전 말한적이 있다.
>한국말로 말하자면 경제 연착륙을 바라는 꿈 깨 !!!  이런 말이다.
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>필자는 미국 경제가 잘못되기를 바라는 사람이 절대로 아니다.. 미국이란 대국이 세계경제를 이끄는 힘이 과거에 비해서 많이 약해지기는 했지만 아짂까지는 그래도 미치는 영향력이 크기에, 또 필자를 비롯, 가족들도 미국에서 거주하며 미국경제의 안정을 기대하는 사람으로 걱정스러운 마음으로 정책에 대해 반문하고 질타를 하는것 뿐이다.
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>Sub-prime Mortgage 의 문제는 이제 겨우시작 됬고 이제 전체 문제의 10% 도 채 않되는것이 보여졌을 뿐이다. 앞으로남은 90% 의 문제가 물이 뜨거워지다가 한꺼번에 부글부글 끓듯이 끌을때의 시장상황은 생각하기도 싫은 상황이다.
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