Report Predicts Housing Market Slowdown
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Mar. 29 - KGO - What's your house worth? A grim new prediction for California real estate: a slowdown that could last for years.
You may have noticed that California's insane housing market is showing signs of cooling off. A new report out of UCLA says that's what happening, but it's far from a collapse. So what about the traditionally over the top market in the Bay Area?
If the state's housing market seemed crazy to you in recent years, you were right. The UCLA Anderson School of Management report suggests some sanity is returning.
Stephen Levy, economist: "They're not saying that there's gonna be a housing crash. They're just saying the growth part of housing is gone."
Economist Stephen Levy has been watching the Bay Area economy and housing market for over 30 years. He agrees that the housing market is stagnating.
As proof, the study points to a slowdown in sales, increasing inventory of homes on the market and a leveling off of price appreciation.
Realtors are often critical of the Anderson quarterly reports and this time is no exception. California Association of Realtors president Vince Malta says it's not a stagnant market.
Vince Malta, California Association of Realtors: "I would call it sort of the 'Goldilocks market' - not too hot not too cold it's just right - and so we're experiencing I believe what would be considered a very balanced market as a whole."
The Anderson report predicts home sales will drop 18 percent this year, another 10 percent next year and will be down again in 2008. And it says average prices will rise zero to one percent between now and 2010.
Malta agrees appreciation is slowing, even in San Francisco, where no new homes are being built.
Vince Malta: "We're trying to get our expectation of our sellers in line. Don't expect double-digit depreciation through your marketing of your property. It's not there."
And homes might be on the market longer.
"For years if the property didn't sell within the first 10 days, it would be considered somewhat of an old listing that's no longer going to be the case."
Still, it's all relative.
"I talked to some colleagues in Michigan and they have had properties for sale for over a year."
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You may have noticed that California's insane housing market is showing signs of cooling off. A new report out of UCLA says that's what happening, but it's far from a collapse. So what about the traditionally over the top market in the Bay Area?
If the state's housing market seemed crazy to you in recent years, you were right. The UCLA Anderson School of Management report suggests some sanity is returning.
Stephen Levy, economist: "They're not saying that there's gonna be a housing crash. They're just saying the growth part of housing is gone."
Economist Stephen Levy has been watching the Bay Area economy and housing market for over 30 years. He agrees that the housing market is stagnating.
As proof, the study points to a slowdown in sales, increasing inventory of homes on the market and a leveling off of price appreciation.
Realtors are often critical of the Anderson quarterly reports and this time is no exception. California Association of Realtors president Vince Malta says it's not a stagnant market.
Vince Malta, California Association of Realtors: "I would call it sort of the 'Goldilocks market' - not too hot not too cold it's just right - and so we're experiencing I believe what would be considered a very balanced market as a whole."
The Anderson report predicts home sales will drop 18 percent this year, another 10 percent next year and will be down again in 2008. And it says average prices will rise zero to one percent between now and 2010.
Malta agrees appreciation is slowing, even in San Francisco, where no new homes are being built.
Vince Malta: "We're trying to get our expectation of our sellers in line. Don't expect double-digit depreciation through your marketing of your property. It's not there."
And homes might be on the market longer.
"For years if the property didn't sell within the first 10 days, it would be considered somewhat of an old listing that's no longer going to be the case."
Still, it's all relative.
"I talked to some colleagues in Michigan and they have had properties for sale for over a year."
>> Video On Demand: Build Your Own Newscast
작성일2006-03-30 07:50
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