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Contra Costa 카운티에 "곡소리" 난다고 하더니만, San Diego 는 그야말로 "초죽음" 이네요. 그런데 충분히 일리가 있어 보입니다. 주변에 집살려고 하던 사람들이 이제 대부분 열중 쉬어 자세로 지켜 보고만 있으니 2001년 (Dotcom crush 로 2000년 Peak 대비 주택가격 20% 이상 떨어졌던 때) 이나 다를바 없겠는데요...
A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market -- just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he's correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.
I know of one so-called real estate investor (and I prefer to call people like him speculators rather than investors) who has three homes he thought he could flip for a profit -- but he priced them too high. Now, $7,500 comes out of his pocket every month to feed the negative-cash-flow alligators. The problem is, he and his wife don't earn that much a month. Their three alligators are literally eating them out of house and home, consuming the profits they made from other flips -- and their savings.
To add more pain to the misery, they still have to pay the capital-gain taxes they made from their previous successful flips. They're toast. The alligators are eating them alive. They can't afford to feed them, and they can't afford to sell them because the prices they paid for these alligators are more than they're worth today. And this is only one story -- out of who knows how many. Over the next couple of years, keep your eyes open for some great bargains.
If investors stop buying U.S. government debt, who knows what might happen? The U.S. may need to raise interest rates even higher, which will drive home values down even further. So be patient, keep looking at real estate, but keep your hand on your wallet (unless of course you find a seller with a really mean alligator eating him alive).
특종님이 2006-06-13 10:07:46에 쓰신글
>지난번 제가 San Diego 를 방문한뒤 올린 글에대한 내용도 조금 포함되 있군요.
>
>We are facing very serious market conditions than we can imagine.
>
>꼭 읽어보시기 바랍니다. 번역해드리지 못해 죄송합니다.
>
>http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/5766
A friend of mine, a very seasoned real estate investor, says in San Diego County, once one of the hottest real estate markets in the country, thousands of new condominiums are getting ready to come to market -- just as the market softens. He estimates that over 12,000 new units are coming on line, and the market, at the best of times, can only absorb about 1,000 condominiums a year. If he's correct, that means 12 years of supply will be ready for market in the next year.
I know of one so-called real estate investor (and I prefer to call people like him speculators rather than investors) who has three homes he thought he could flip for a profit -- but he priced them too high. Now, $7,500 comes out of his pocket every month to feed the negative-cash-flow alligators. The problem is, he and his wife don't earn that much a month. Their three alligators are literally eating them out of house and home, consuming the profits they made from other flips -- and their savings.
To add more pain to the misery, they still have to pay the capital-gain taxes they made from their previous successful flips. They're toast. The alligators are eating them alive. They can't afford to feed them, and they can't afford to sell them because the prices they paid for these alligators are more than they're worth today. And this is only one story -- out of who knows how many. Over the next couple of years, keep your eyes open for some great bargains.
If investors stop buying U.S. government debt, who knows what might happen? The U.S. may need to raise interest rates even higher, which will drive home values down even further. So be patient, keep looking at real estate, but keep your hand on your wallet (unless of course you find a seller with a really mean alligator eating him alive).
특종님이 2006-06-13 10:07:46에 쓰신글
>지난번 제가 San Diego 를 방문한뒤 올린 글에대한 내용도 조금 포함되 있군요.
>
>We are facing very serious market conditions than we can imagine.
>
>꼭 읽어보시기 바랍니다. 번역해드리지 못해 죄송합니다.
>
>http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/5766
작성일2006-06-13 23:31
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