Existing-Home Sales Decline, But Prices
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집중간 값은 조금 올랐다고 하면서 안정되기 시작하는 사인이 아닌가 하는 기사입니
다.
Existing-Home Sales Decline,
But Prices Show Glimmer of Hope
By KELLY EVANS and SUDEEP REDDY
April 22, 2008 3:49 p.m.
Sales of existing homes dropped in March as the housing market slump
continued, but two gauges of home prices show a rare glimmer of hope that the
turmoil may be easing a bit.
Home sales in San Francisco may be down but competition is hot. Stacey Delo
reports on how some homes are seeing 10 or more bidders, and in one case
22.
Home sales fell 2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million, the
National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. The drop followed an increase
of 2.9% in February. That rise was the first monthly gain since July. Resales fell
19% from March 2007's 6.11 million rate.
The languid sales pace pushed inventories of unsold homes to a 9.9 months'
supply at the current sales pace. That large overhang has put downward
pressure on prices for months, especially in areas hit hardest by the housing
crisis.
Now, though, there are signs that prices might be beginning to stabilize. The
median home price rose to $200,700 last month from a revised $195,600 in
February, the Realtors' report said. And an index of home prices from the Office
of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (Ofheo) also released Tuesday, found
that prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February from January, the first
monthly gain since June.
Both measures have their limitations. The Realtors' data reflect a changing mix
of homes, rather than the same houses being bought and sold. The Ofheo
index, meanwhile, tracks homes purchased with government-backed mortgage
products, so it excludes homes financed with subprime mortgages. Still, the
data suggest the sales and price declines may be slowing.
"While it remains too early to definitively call a bottom, we continue to argue that
home sales will stabilize (albeit at very low levels) by mid-year," Stephen
Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Stamford, Conn., said in a
note to clients.
Existing-home sales dropped 6.5% in the Midwest last month and 3.5% in the
South, and rose 2.2% in the West and Northeast. Single-family home sales fell
2.7% in while sales of condominiums and co-ops rose by 3.6%, the second
increase in a row, by 3.6%.
The fate of the housing market could determine the shape and length of the
current economic downturn. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal,
Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, warned that
the U.S. may be in for a long period of "anemic growth -- longer than two
quarters." (Read excerpts from the interview.7)
But, he said, "I don't think it needs to be all that deep. We've really weathered a
hell of a setback…. This strikes deep at the heart of the ordinary, hardworking
consumer. ... They're getting multiple whammies -- slow economic growth, job
insecurity, their homes are perceived to be worth less. And they're paying
more at the pump and more for food. So the consumer is really getting
hammered. And yet they've held up fairly well so far. I would expect them to
change their behavioral patterns."
He also said, in the Monday interview, that slower economic growth may not
resolve mounting concerns about inflation because he anticipates only a mild
slowdown in world demand. "We've been weakening and we haven't seen the
price responses," he said. Mr. Fisher voted against lowering interest rates at
the last two meetings of the Federal Reserve's policy committee, and in a recent
speech expressed "strong reluctance" to cutting rates further.
The Fed is expected to lower interest rates again at its April 29-30 meeting.
Many analysts expect the Fed, which has cut its benchmark federal-funds rate
repeatedly to spur the economy, to reduce the rate by another quarter
percentage point, to 2%. But some worry the rate cuts could fuel a burgeoning
global inflation problem.
"Will the U.S. slowing down really damp the price of oil, or the price of food, rice,
or flour, cornmeal, the price of steel? … It's not clear to me that a mild
slowdown will put a dent in price pressures domestically," Mr. Fisher said.
"Obviously if you have a tail risk of a very severe global slowdown, then yes, I
can see that. I don't see that in the cards at least from my limited perspective."
집중간 값은 조금 올랐다고 하면서 안정되기 시작하는 사인이 아닌가 하는 기사입니
다.
Existing-Home Sales Decline,
But Prices Show Glimmer of Hope
By KELLY EVANS and SUDEEP REDDY
April 22, 2008 3:49 p.m.
Sales of existing homes dropped in March as the housing market slump
continued, but two gauges of home prices show a rare glimmer of hope that the
turmoil may be easing a bit.
Home sales in San Francisco may be down but competition is hot. Stacey Delo
reports on how some homes are seeing 10 or more bidders, and in one case
22.
Home sales fell 2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.93 million, the
National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. The drop followed an increase
of 2.9% in February. That rise was the first monthly gain since July. Resales fell
19% from March 2007's 6.11 million rate.
The languid sales pace pushed inventories of unsold homes to a 9.9 months'
supply at the current sales pace. That large overhang has put downward
pressure on prices for months, especially in areas hit hardest by the housing
crisis.
Now, though, there are signs that prices might be beginning to stabilize. The
median home price rose to $200,700 last month from a revised $195,600 in
February, the Realtors' report said. And an index of home prices from the Office
of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (Ofheo) also released Tuesday, found
that prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.6% in February from January, the first
monthly gain since June.
Both measures have their limitations. The Realtors' data reflect a changing mix
of homes, rather than the same houses being bought and sold. The Ofheo
index, meanwhile, tracks homes purchased with government-backed mortgage
products, so it excludes homes financed with subprime mortgages. Still, the
data suggest the sales and price declines may be slowing.
"While it remains too early to definitively call a bottom, we continue to argue that
home sales will stabilize (albeit at very low levels) by mid-year," Stephen
Stanley, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Stamford, Conn., said in a
note to clients.
Existing-home sales dropped 6.5% in the Midwest last month and 3.5% in the
South, and rose 2.2% in the West and Northeast. Single-family home sales fell
2.7% in while sales of condominiums and co-ops rose by 3.6%, the second
increase in a row, by 3.6%.
The fate of the housing market could determine the shape and length of the
current economic downturn. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal,
Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, warned that
the U.S. may be in for a long period of "anemic growth -- longer than two
quarters." (Read excerpts from the interview.7)
But, he said, "I don't think it needs to be all that deep. We've really weathered a
hell of a setback…. This strikes deep at the heart of the ordinary, hardworking
consumer. ... They're getting multiple whammies -- slow economic growth, job
insecurity, their homes are perceived to be worth less. And they're paying
more at the pump and more for food. So the consumer is really getting
hammered. And yet they've held up fairly well so far. I would expect them to
change their behavioral patterns."
He also said, in the Monday interview, that slower economic growth may not
resolve mounting concerns about inflation because he anticipates only a mild
slowdown in world demand. "We've been weakening and we haven't seen the
price responses," he said. Mr. Fisher voted against lowering interest rates at
the last two meetings of the Federal Reserve's policy committee, and in a recent
speech expressed "strong reluctance" to cutting rates further.
The Fed is expected to lower interest rates again at its April 29-30 meeting.
Many analysts expect the Fed, which has cut its benchmark federal-funds rate
repeatedly to spur the economy, to reduce the rate by another quarter
percentage point, to 2%. But some worry the rate cuts could fuel a burgeoning
global inflation problem.
"Will the U.S. slowing down really damp the price of oil, or the price of food, rice,
or flour, cornmeal, the price of steel? … It's not clear to me that a mild
slowdown will put a dent in price pressures domestically," Mr. Fisher said.
"Obviously if you have a tail risk of a very severe global slowdown, then yes, I
can see that. I don't see that in the cards at least from my limited perspective."
작성일2008-04-22 16:22
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