<b> Realtor 들의 부동산 전망에 의문</b>
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@Realtors' bullish housing outlook questioned@
Stock market 이 곤두박질치고 있었던 2000년 말 Appleton-Young (chief economist for the California Association of Realtors) 은, 다음해 (2001년) 에도 부동산전망은 여전히 밝다고 (California 지역 주택 절대부족 이라는 이유로) 큰소리 치던게 생각 나는군요 (실제로는 2001년에 20-25% Down 된것으로 생각됨).
대부분의 Economist 들이 2006년 전망을 어둡게 보는데 반해, 유일하게 부동산 중개인들만 내년에도 오른다고 (똑같이 California 지역 주택 절대부족 이라는 이유) 큰소리 치는 이유는 뭔가요? (부동산 중개인들은 눈에띄게 많아지고, 주택 거래는 줄어들고 가격은 떨어지면...).
몇주전 Open house 갔다가 Seller's agent (Windermere) 와 내년 부동산 전망을 이야기 하던중에, 자기네 (부동산중개인) 들은 내년에도 집값 오른다고 계속 PR 하고있는데, San Jose Mercury 에서 3일 연재 (아마 10월 쯤) 로 Housing bubble 을 기재 하는 바람에 자기네들은 너무 화가 난다고... (자기네들이 큰 광고주 인데 감히 고추가루를 뿌려?)
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/13262041.htm
Posted on Sat, Nov. 26, 2005
Realtors' bullish housing outlook questioned
PRICE GAINS, MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS SLOWING
By Rachel Beck
Associated Press
NEW YORK - When real estate agents try to sell a home, they often zero in on the positives -- big closets, great space for entertaining, lots of potential to expand.
It's the same tactic that the trade group representing many home sales agents, the National Association of Realtors, appears to be using right now: It asserts in a new report that a healthy housing market is here to stay and prices aren't likely to decline.
But that sounds awfully upbeat given recent data showing that home-builder sentiment has plunged and that price inflation in certain markets, including California and Florida, has started to slow. At the same time, inventories are up, mortgage applications are down and real-estate lending, particularly home-equity loans, remains soft.
Where the housing market heads next matters because of its potential economic impact. Lehman Brothers estimates that one-third of economic growth in the past year is a direct or indirect consequence of the boom in home construction, sales and prices. So if the market begins to dramatically shift course, everything from employment to consumer spending to manufacturing could take a hit.
The trouble, of course, is that it's not yet clear if recent signs of weakness are just a blip or the beginning of a market shift, and that is fueling much debate over how much power the current boom has left.
According to the NAR, a downturn isn't likely and surely isn't imminent. In a report that looked at 130 local markets ranging in size from New York and Chicago to Sioux Falls, S.D., and Richmond, Va., it found that ``the facts do not support the possibility of a housing bust -- not for these 130 markets and not for the nation.''
Many local markets cited in its study were found to be in ``excellent shape'' with ``potential for significant housing equity gains'' -- even markets where there have been double-digit gains in prices without strong fundamentals backing such a climb.
To support its findings, Washington-based NAR points out that most metropolitan areas haven't seen overall price declines since 1968, when its record keeping began. It also said Americans shouldn't be concerned that home prices are rising faster than family income.
NAR acknowledged that mortgage rates are likely to rise next year as interest rates continue to climb from 46-year lows, but said that should have only a ``minor braking effect on home sales.'' And though that could slow the rate of price growth, ``in many areas, inventory shortages will persist and home prices are likely to continue to rise above historic norms.''
But dig a little into the details of the report, and such a rosy outlook starts to seem a bit perplexing, according to economists at Merrill Lynch who analyzed the NAR's findings.
``It's sort of similar to if the Nasdaq had put out a bullish report on tech stocks in early 2000, don't you think?'' Merrill Lynch chief North American economist David Rosenberg said in a note to clients.
For instance, in the New York City area, housing prices rose 20 percent in the past year, well above the 13 percent national average gain, and are up 47 percent in the past three years, also ahead of the 32 percent national rise since 2002, according to NAR.
That made it one of the regions NAR judges to be in ``excellent shape.'' But as Rosenberg points out, three-year job growth in the region is down 3.1 percent and it is experiencing negative net migration, meaning more U.S. residents are leaving than moving in.
There has also been plenty of anecdotal evidence in recent months of home and apartment prices being reduced to move the real estate off the market as listings linger much longer than they have in the recent past.
The San Francisco-Oakland market is also deemed by the NAR to be a growing housing market. Prices there rose 12 percent in the past year and 40 percent in the past three years. However, job growth there is down 7.1 percent in the past three years and net migration is well below national averages.
In both regions, home buyers also have relied heavily on risky mortgages to finance their purchases, which makes them particularly vulnerable to interest-rate changes over time. Thirty-two percent of New Yorkers have adjustable rate mortgages while 67 percent of those in the San Francisco area use ARMs, meaning their monthly payments will rise as interest rates go up.
Despite such potential troubles, NAR senior economist Lawrence Yun defends the group's bullish report, saying home sales have shifted from a frenzy to a more sustainable healthy pace.
Yun also acknowledges that the optimistic view is intended to quell concerns of potential homeowners that a housing bubble, which the NAR doesn't believe ever developed, has or is about to burst.
``We are hearing that some home buyers are backtracking from buying because of the housing-market bubble,'' he said. ``But we think recent price increases were justified by fundamentals and the overall outlook still looks very solid.''
Consumers should be aware of what could come if many economists are right and a housing correction is already under way or may soon develop. The typical pattern is a two-year drop in prices of 10 percent to 20 percent followed by a number of years of flat prices, according to Lehman.
=============================================================
@October Exiting-Home Sales Show Markets Cooling@
불과 얼마전까지만 해도 NAR (부동산협회) 에서 내년 (2006) 에도 ~10% 정도 오른다고 큰소리 치더니만, 이제는 "balance," "soft landing" 이라고 하네요.^^
http://www.realtor.org/publicaffairsweb.nsf/Pages/05OctEHS?OpenDocument
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said markets are getting into better balance between demand and supply. “We are returning to more balanced markets between home buyers and sellers, one that places buyers on a more even footing. Housing activity has peaked and is coming down a bit, and we expect further cooling in the coming months. We feel confident that housing is landing softly as rates continue to rise.”
Stock market 이 곤두박질치고 있었던 2000년 말 Appleton-Young (chief economist for the California Association of Realtors) 은, 다음해 (2001년) 에도 부동산전망은 여전히 밝다고 (California 지역 주택 절대부족 이라는 이유로) 큰소리 치던게 생각 나는군요 (실제로는 2001년에 20-25% Down 된것으로 생각됨).
대부분의 Economist 들이 2006년 전망을 어둡게 보는데 반해, 유일하게 부동산 중개인들만 내년에도 오른다고 (똑같이 California 지역 주택 절대부족 이라는 이유) 큰소리 치는 이유는 뭔가요? (부동산 중개인들은 눈에띄게 많아지고, 주택 거래는 줄어들고 가격은 떨어지면...).
몇주전 Open house 갔다가 Seller's agent (Windermere) 와 내년 부동산 전망을 이야기 하던중에, 자기네 (부동산중개인) 들은 내년에도 집값 오른다고 계속 PR 하고있는데, San Jose Mercury 에서 3일 연재 (아마 10월 쯤) 로 Housing bubble 을 기재 하는 바람에 자기네들은 너무 화가 난다고... (자기네들이 큰 광고주 인데 감히 고추가루를 뿌려?)
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/13262041.htm
Posted on Sat, Nov. 26, 2005
Realtors' bullish housing outlook questioned
PRICE GAINS, MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS SLOWING
By Rachel Beck
Associated Press
NEW YORK - When real estate agents try to sell a home, they often zero in on the positives -- big closets, great space for entertaining, lots of potential to expand.
It's the same tactic that the trade group representing many home sales agents, the National Association of Realtors, appears to be using right now: It asserts in a new report that a healthy housing market is here to stay and prices aren't likely to decline.
But that sounds awfully upbeat given recent data showing that home-builder sentiment has plunged and that price inflation in certain markets, including California and Florida, has started to slow. At the same time, inventories are up, mortgage applications are down and real-estate lending, particularly home-equity loans, remains soft.
Where the housing market heads next matters because of its potential economic impact. Lehman Brothers estimates that one-third of economic growth in the past year is a direct or indirect consequence of the boom in home construction, sales and prices. So if the market begins to dramatically shift course, everything from employment to consumer spending to manufacturing could take a hit.
The trouble, of course, is that it's not yet clear if recent signs of weakness are just a blip or the beginning of a market shift, and that is fueling much debate over how much power the current boom has left.
According to the NAR, a downturn isn't likely and surely isn't imminent. In a report that looked at 130 local markets ranging in size from New York and Chicago to Sioux Falls, S.D., and Richmond, Va., it found that ``the facts do not support the possibility of a housing bust -- not for these 130 markets and not for the nation.''
Many local markets cited in its study were found to be in ``excellent shape'' with ``potential for significant housing equity gains'' -- even markets where there have been double-digit gains in prices without strong fundamentals backing such a climb.
To support its findings, Washington-based NAR points out that most metropolitan areas haven't seen overall price declines since 1968, when its record keeping began. It also said Americans shouldn't be concerned that home prices are rising faster than family income.
NAR acknowledged that mortgage rates are likely to rise next year as interest rates continue to climb from 46-year lows, but said that should have only a ``minor braking effect on home sales.'' And though that could slow the rate of price growth, ``in many areas, inventory shortages will persist and home prices are likely to continue to rise above historic norms.''
But dig a little into the details of the report, and such a rosy outlook starts to seem a bit perplexing, according to economists at Merrill Lynch who analyzed the NAR's findings.
``It's sort of similar to if the Nasdaq had put out a bullish report on tech stocks in early 2000, don't you think?'' Merrill Lynch chief North American economist David Rosenberg said in a note to clients.
For instance, in the New York City area, housing prices rose 20 percent in the past year, well above the 13 percent national average gain, and are up 47 percent in the past three years, also ahead of the 32 percent national rise since 2002, according to NAR.
That made it one of the regions NAR judges to be in ``excellent shape.'' But as Rosenberg points out, three-year job growth in the region is down 3.1 percent and it is experiencing negative net migration, meaning more U.S. residents are leaving than moving in.
There has also been plenty of anecdotal evidence in recent months of home and apartment prices being reduced to move the real estate off the market as listings linger much longer than they have in the recent past.
The San Francisco-Oakland market is also deemed by the NAR to be a growing housing market. Prices there rose 12 percent in the past year and 40 percent in the past three years. However, job growth there is down 7.1 percent in the past three years and net migration is well below national averages.
In both regions, home buyers also have relied heavily on risky mortgages to finance their purchases, which makes them particularly vulnerable to interest-rate changes over time. Thirty-two percent of New Yorkers have adjustable rate mortgages while 67 percent of those in the San Francisco area use ARMs, meaning their monthly payments will rise as interest rates go up.
Despite such potential troubles, NAR senior economist Lawrence Yun defends the group's bullish report, saying home sales have shifted from a frenzy to a more sustainable healthy pace.
Yun also acknowledges that the optimistic view is intended to quell concerns of potential homeowners that a housing bubble, which the NAR doesn't believe ever developed, has or is about to burst.
``We are hearing that some home buyers are backtracking from buying because of the housing-market bubble,'' he said. ``But we think recent price increases were justified by fundamentals and the overall outlook still looks very solid.''
Consumers should be aware of what could come if many economists are right and a housing correction is already under way or may soon develop. The typical pattern is a two-year drop in prices of 10 percent to 20 percent followed by a number of years of flat prices, according to Lehman.
=============================================================
@October Exiting-Home Sales Show Markets Cooling@
불과 얼마전까지만 해도 NAR (부동산협회) 에서 내년 (2006) 에도 ~10% 정도 오른다고 큰소리 치더니만, 이제는 "balance," "soft landing" 이라고 하네요.^^
http://www.realtor.org/publicaffairsweb.nsf/Pages/05OctEHS?OpenDocument
David Lereah, NAR’s chief economist, said markets are getting into better balance between demand and supply. “We are returning to more balanced markets between home buyers and sellers, one that places buyers on a more even footing. Housing activity has peaked and is coming down a bit, and we expect further cooling in the coming months. We feel confident that housing is landing softly as rates continue to rise.”
작성일2005-11-28 22:33
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